There are some industries where company histories gets really confusing. Mergers, acquisitions, bankruptcies, name changes, and all kinds of other events make it hard to truly understand what parts of the story are meaningful. I’ve found this especially prevalent with financial institutions, advertising agencies, and publishers. We’re going to talk about the latter today. Macmillan is the New York, NY based face of a “group of publishing companies in the United States held by Verlagsgruppe Georg von Holtzbrinck” (a German company). As I read through their history, I got a bit overwhelmed. It starts in 1843 with two Scottish brothers, and includes the story about a completely different publisher named Macmillan. While understanding Macmillan’s history is important, it’s far more important to understand their future, which might include you.
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, but I became more interested yesterday with the election in Massachusetts. A prediction market falls somewhere between betting and investing—it allows you to buy contracts that either pay out or don’t based on a given outcome. For example there was a time yesterday before polls closed when you could have purchased a contract for $70 that would have paid out $100 if the Republican nominee, Scott Brown, won the Massachusetts Senate election. The price of a contract reflects the probability that a given event will happen—a $70 contract represents a 70% likelihood. 
